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¡¡¡¡¡¾¹Ø¼ü´Ê¡¿ DZÔÚÔö³¤ ЧÂÊ Æ½ÎȼõËÙ ½á¹¹µ÷Õû Potential Growth Efficiency Stabilized Slowdown Structural Adjustment

¡¡¡¡¡¾Õª Òª¡¿ ±¾ÎÄÑо¿Öйú½«Òª¾­ÀúµÄÔö³¤½×¶Îת»»ÎÊÌ⣬Ö÷Òª½áÂÛÊÇ£º(1)¸ßͶ×ʺͳö¿ÚÇý¶¯µÄ¾­¼ÃÔö³¤½×¶Î¢ñ£¬ÒÑÖð²½Ê§È¥¾­ÓɸÉÔ¤ÌáÉýЧÂʵĶ¯Á¦£¬ÒԽṹµ÷Õû´Ù½øЧÂÊÌá¸ßµÄÔö³¤½×¶ÎÐн«½áÊø£¬³ÇÊл¯ºÍ·þÎñÒµµÄ·¢Õ¹½«¿ªÆô¾­¼ÃÎÈËÙÔö³¤½×¶Î¢ò£¬Ð§ÂÊÌá¸ß´Ù½ø½á¹¹ÓÅ»¯ÊDZ¾½×¶ÎµÄÖ÷ÒªÌØÕ÷£»(2)´ÙʹÔö³¤½×¶Î¢ñÏòÔö³¤½×¶Î¢òתÐ͵ÄÈý´óÖ÷µ¼ÒòËØÊÇ£ºÈ˿ڽṹ±ä»¯ºÍÀͶ¯Á¦¹ÕµãµÄ³öÏÖ£¬³¤ÆÚÔö³¤º¯ÊýÒªËص¯ÐÔ²ÎÊýÄæתÒÔ¼°¾­¼Ã½á¹¹·þÎñ»¯Ç÷ÊƵÄÖð²½Ðγɣ»(3)¶«²¿·¢´ïÊ¡ÊÐÈç±±¾©¡¢ÉϺ£µÈÒѾ­½øÈë¾­¼Ã¼õËÙͨµÀ£¬2016Äêºó£¬Ëæ×ÅÈ«¹ú³ÇÊл¯ÂʵIJ»¶ÏÌá¸ß¡¢½á¹¹·þÎñ»¯¼Ó¿ì¡¢ÈË¿ÚºìÀûµÄϽµ£¬Èç¹ûÀͶ¯Éú²úÂʲ»ÄܳÖÐøÌá¸ß£¬Öйú¾­¼Ã¼õËÙÊƳɱØÈ»¡£ This study probes into the switch of growth stages China is going to experience, with main conclusions as follows: (1)growth stage ¢ñ,driven by high investment and industrialization, is gradually losing its power of efficiency-enhancing through intervening, and the stage of structural adjustment to improve efficiency is now coming to an end, and meanwhile, growth stage ¢ò is being initiated by the development of urbanization and service industry, of which the main characteristics is structural improvement through efficiency-enhancing; (2)three main factors brings about the switch from growth stage ¢ñ to stage ¢ò, viz., the arrival of turning points of demographic structure and labor supply, the sharp changes in output elasticities of production factors along the long-run growth path, and the emerge of the dominance of service industry in the economic structure; (3)rich eastern cities and provinces like Beijing and Shanghai has entered the slowdown growth path, and it is rather certain that in 2016 China's economy will slow down during the speeding urbanization process.


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